The war between the United States and Iran is entering a politically sensitive phase, with Washington facing a crucial deadline that could influence how far the conflict escalates. The US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, are increasingly becoming an important factor in the Trump administration\u2019s calculations over the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since renewed fighting began last week, both Washington and Tehran have carried out fresh attacks. Yet the conflict has so far stopped short of returning to the intensity seen during its opening months. Behind that restraint, however, lies a difficult political calculation: President Donald Trump\u2019s Republican Party is trying to protect its narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, while public support for the war has fallen sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A recent Reuters\/Ipsos poll found that only 31 percent of Americans support the war with Iran, compared with 63 percent who oppose it. Trump\u2019s approval rating has also declined since the conflict began, falling from around 40 percent to 33 percent, according to the same polling cited in the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The figures present a serious political challenge for the White House. A prolonged or intensified war could push the conflict higher on voters\u2019 list of concerns just as Republicans prepare for a difficult midterm contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Instead of immediately committing to a full-scale military campaign, Washington has increasingly relied on economic pressure. The Trump administration recently imposed sanctions on 60 individuals and entities involved in trade with Iran, particularly those purchasing Iranian oil. It has also warned other countries that continuing business with Tehran could expose them to US sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, American military pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports has continued, placing additional strain on Tehran\u2019s ability to export oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The conflict has also begun to affect ordinary Americans through higher energy and transportation costs. Diesel prices in the United States recently reached a record level, surpassing the previous high recorded in 2022. Rising fuel costs are feeding into wider living expenses, creating another political vulnerability for the Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The issue is particularly sensitive for Trump because reducing energy costs and avoiding what he has described as unnecessary wars were important themes in his political messaging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Politico survey in August found that 61 percent of Americans believed the Iran war had increased their household living costs, four percentage points higher than the previous month. With Democrats already highlighting the cost of living as a central issue in their midterm campaign, the economic consequences of the war could become a significant electoral liability for Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The White House has therefore appeared to be attempting a difficult balancing act\u2014maintaining military and economic pressure on Iran while preventing the conflict from developing into a much larger war before November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vice President JD Vance has sought to play down the scale of the conflict in public comments. When asked whether the war would be over before the midterms, Vance said he would not describe the situation as a \u201cwar\u201d and argued that there was no active exchange of gunfire at that moment. He also suggested that the impact of the conflict on global energy markets was declining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The administration has also pointed to efforts to keep shipping traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz. US officials have claimed that around 30 ships are being escorted through the waterway each night and that approximately 18 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on one recent Tuesday. International shipping data, however, does not fully substantiate those claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts warn that Washington\u2019s apparent attempt to maintain a situation that is neither full-scale war nor genuine peace carries substantial risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Tehran was unlikely to surrender simply because of economic pressure. She warned that although both sides may believe they can control the level of confrontation, repeated retaliatory attacks could gradually push the region toward a much wider conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That danger has already become visible. One recent US strike in southern Iran was reported to have hit a civilian home in Kuhestak, where a wedding ceremony was reportedly taking place. At least four people, including children, were reported killed and several others injured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are also concerns within the US military about the sustainability of the current campaign. According to The Washington Post, senior American military officials have warned Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth in a written assessment that continuing the war at its current pace could place a strain on US military readiness in other parts of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The administration\u2019s shifting approach has also raised questions about whether Washington has a clear long-term strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, argued that the latest strikes demonstrated continuing strategic uncertainty in Washington. The United States had imposed extensive economic sanctions partly to avoid the need for military intervention, he noted, only to resume bombing Iran shortly afterward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The result, he suggested, was an administration moving between different approaches without a clearly defined endgame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For Iran, the calculations are equally complicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although US and Iranian attacks have resumed, the latest exchanges have been less intense than those during the first weeks of the war and even below the levels seen during periods of heightened tension in July. That does not necessarily mean the danger has diminished. A single major attack could quickly trigger a new cycle of retaliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran has demonstrated that it can impose significant costs on a militarily superior opponent through asymmetric tactics. The country has used relatively inexpensive drones and other methods to place pressure on costly American defence systems, while attacks on US allies and military assets in the Gulf have created additional instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of Tehran\u2019s most powerful sources of leverage. Any serious disruption to commercial shipping through the waterway can affect global energy markets and increase economic pressure far beyond the immediate battlefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Iran continues targeting American military facilities, regional bases, shipping or energy infrastructure, political pressure on Washington to respond more forcefully could increase. Such a sequence could create a cycle in which each retaliatory action makes the next escalation more difficult to avoid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The political calendar could itself become part of Iran\u2019s strategic calculations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trita Parsi said some Iranian officials may believe Trump intends to launch a larger war eventually and is merely waiting until after the midterm elections. If Tehran adopts that interpretation, Iranian leaders could conclude that escalating the conflict before November would place the greatest possible political pressure on the US president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Such a calculation could produce the opposite of what Washington wants. Rather than allowing the White House to maintain control over the intensity of the conflict until the election, Iran could decide to escalate at the most politically vulnerable moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What happens after November could be just as consequential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reuters reported that senior White House officials have already discussed whether military operations against Iran should be intensified after the November 3 election. No final decision has reportedly been made on returning to full-scale war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Republicans retain control of Congress, Trump could have greater political room to pursue a tougher policy toward Iran. A Republican victory might also be interpreted by the administration as evidence that the war did not generate enough opposition among voters to produce an electoral backlash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Republican defeat, however, could create a different set of pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Democrats gain control of either or both chambers of Congress, Trump\u2019s ability to pursue the war without congressional resistance could become more complicated. Congress controls government funding, while committee majorities could hold hearings and investigations into the administration\u2019s conduct of the conflict and challenge requests for additional military spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, an electoral defeat could make the president more unpredictable rather than necessarily more restrained. With the political pressure of the midterm campaign behind him, Trump may feel less compelled to keep the conflict contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For Iran, therefore, neither a Republican victory nor a defeat offers a straightforward advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The coming two months may prove critical. Washington must decide how far it can push economic and military pressure without triggering a larger war, while Tehran must weigh the risks of retaliation against the possibility that restraint could simply postpone a more serious confrontation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The central uncertainty is whether both sides can continue managing the conflict without losing control of it. A strategy of limited strikes, economic sanctions and military pressure may appear to offer an alternative to full-scale war, but every new attack creates another opportunity for escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The November election may influence the direction of the conflict, but it cannot guarantee that the war will remain within political limits. If either side miscalculates, the carefully maintained space between war and peace could disappear quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ultimately, the US midterm elections may determine not only the political balance in Washington but also the room President Trump has to decide what comes next in Iran. Until then, the administration faces a difficult task: contain a conflict that has already lasted far longer than initially expected, manage its growing economic consequences at home, and prevent a series of limited confrontations from developing into another major regional war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A news by Alisha Pradhan, General Secretary, HerNet Foundation<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The war between the United States and Iran is entering a politically sensitive phase, with Washington facing a crucial deadline that could influence how far the conflict escalates. The US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, are increasingly becoming an important factor in the Trump administration\u2019s calculations over the war. Since renewed fighting began last […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7631,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-5"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7629"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7629\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7634,"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7629\/revisions\/7634"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hernet.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}